Prediction markets versus Isometric
A price prediction market asks a yes-or-no question: will Bitcoin be above $103,000 next Friday? An Isometric position looks similar at first, because one price at one time decides the result. The difference is the payout. A prediction market pays for being past a line. Isometric pays for how far past it the price goes.
Side by side
| Price prediction market | Isometric | |
| What you choose | A listed question: a price line and a date | Direction, amount, term, and leverage. The target is set for you |
| Payout | All or nothing: a fixed amount per share if right | Grows with each 1% past your worthless price, up to the Max payout |
| A near miss | Pays nothing | Can pay back part of what you paid |
| Most you can lose | What you paid | What you paid |
| Price you pay | Set by other traders, and only as deep as the book | Quoted by the pool, for the whole size at once |
| Exit | Usually any time, by selling to another trader | At settlement only |
| Dates | The dates someone listed | 1, 3, 7, or 30 days from when you open |
| What decides it | The market's own resolution rules | The Chainlink price at the settlement hour |
The same view, two ways
Bitcoin is at $100,000 and you think it will be higher in a week. You have $500.
- Prediction market. You buy Yes on "Above $103,000 in 7 days?". Suppose Yes trades at 30 cents and pays $1 if right. $500 buys about 1,667 shares.
- Isometric. You open the 7-day, 25x long from Reading the quote: worthless at or below $99,154, profit above $103,022, Max payout $3,310.
| Bitcoin at settlement | Prediction market pays | Isometric pays |
| $99,000 | $0 | $0 |
| $102,000 | $0 | $368 |
| $105,000 | $1,667 | $756 |
| $110,000 | $1,667 | $1,402 |
| $120,000 | $1,667 | $2,695 |
The prediction market pays more for a move that only just clears its line. Isometric gives some money back on a near miss and keeps paying as the move grows, up to its maximum. The figures are examples: real prices on both sides move with the market.
Where Isometric fits better
- You have a direction, not a line. You do not need to find a listed question at the right price and date. Pick long or short and a term, and the target is built for you.
- You want to be paid for the size of the move. A big move pays more than a small one.
- You want a near miss to count. Between the worthless price and the profit price you get part of your money back.
- You want one price for the whole size. The pool quotes the full amount. There is no book to walk through.
Where a prediction market fits better
- You have a view on one exact line. If you only care whether the price clears $103,000, a yes-or-no share says exactly that.
- You want to exit early. You can usually sell your shares before resolution. An Isometric position runs to settlement.
- You want to trade something other than a price. Isometric only trades market prices.
Before you trade, read Know the risks.